Yeah, yeah, you are you yourself are never wrong and certainly
your mental models. And yeah, there's nothing wrong with having a, there's
nothing bad about having your own mental model, a mental model is just something
that happens to me. And so if you if you like, always think and always talk in a
style where you say, you talk about how things seem and what your mental model
is, you can entirely, he says you can entirely avoid two things, you entirely
avoid A, the feeling of fully believing something. And you also entirely avoid
B, the realization that you are 100% wrong about something. Like if you're
always talking about what things seem to be like, you know, what your mental
model is, and you know, what probably might be true, sometimes.
You'll never experience fully believing something, and you'll never experience
what it feels like to be 100% wrong about something. And the interesting point
that he makes is that the good thing about, you know, if there is the potential
of you being confidently wrong about something, it kind of, what's a good
analogy here, it kind of forces you to like, really think about your beliefs and
things. You know, it's kind of like how, if you were, if you weren't, let's say
you were trying to jump a distance of one meter, right? Okay, one meter is
really easy. Let's say you try and jump a distance of two meters, that would be
okay, that's also easy. Let's say, let's say you were trying to jump a distance
of four meters, okay?
Like you want to jump distance of four meters. Now, you could just lay out, you
know, two lines in the sand four meters apart and try and make the jump. Yeah,
that's one way of doing it. Or you could dig a pit of fire, and lava, which is
four meters long, and try and jump over that, right? And when the stakes are
higher, when there is an actual cost of being wrong, your mindset about how the
hell you're going to jump four meters is going to be very different, because now
your life depends on jumping this four meters. In the first instance, when
you're jumping between two lines on the beach, your life doesn't depend on
jumping four meters. And so I think there's a good chance that you can jump the
four meters when it's over lava when your life depends on it, and you have to do
it.
And you might end up never jumping the four meters of the sand. And so
similarly, like, if you actually stake claims to things, and you expose yourself
to the possibility of being, like really confidently wrong about something, and
having to like put your hands up and say, I thought that was true, and I'm
wrong, then like, it's sort of, it sort of tunes your, your thinking circuits
differently, where you're actually, you know, you'll think about things in a
different way. And you'll kind of iterate on your beliefs differently, you're
kind of like, you know, whereas if you can always, you know, get away with all
it seems like, this is the case or whatever, like, there's, there's no stakes,
you can you can go around having really, really, you know, bad mental models, if
you want to call it that.
You can go around your whole life having really bad mental models, because
there's never any reason to try and refine them, or like try and actually get
them right, because you're never gonna be wrong about it. It's always a
probability. So it was it seems to be right. What do you think about that?
